El Nino?

          This fall we were spoiled with more beautiful sunny days at Hamilton than I have seen in the entire previous two years combined.  While I was happy to accept the extension of the summer in to the fall, it was constantly apparent that “winter was coming”.  However, to many students’ delight the uncharacteristically warm temperatures have seemed to only just taper off in to more mild unseasonal temperatures.  For me, I have become tired of choosing between wearing shorts or a coat every morning and am ready for Clinton to get back to its old wintry ways.  The chatter about weather that fills conversational voids has worn out the remarks blaming this season’s conditions on “global warming” or “El Nino”.  It is clear that those who use the former as reasoning for the mild temperatures are joking (I hope), because to support the theory of anthropomorphic climate change with the volatile weather patterns of CNY would be ridiculous, right?  All jokes aside it has become increasingly clear that despite everyone talking about the infamous El Nino, no one really knows exactly what it means.

            The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle a term that describes the fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean temperatures in the east-central Equatorial Pacific.  El Nino meaning “The Little Boy” is the warm phase of the temperature fluctuations as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific are above average.  The presence of these warmer sea temperatures and their interaction with the atmospheric climate can have significant effect on weather patterns, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries across portions of the globe for 9-12 months at a time (noaa.gov).  After last years harsh winter cold, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted the effects of a strong El Nino will lead to “above-average temperatures and below average precipitation over the northern tier of the United States” in to Spring 2016.

            Meteorologist Darrin Harr begs to differ, stating that while El Nino plays an important role in the weather patterns, it is not the only piece of the puzzle.  Harr is predicting that a combination of other factors along with El Nino showing signs that it is reaching its peak will result in a cold and snowy winter in the Adirondacks.  According to Harr, Siberian snow cover, warm Northeastern Pacific sea temperature, and the severe drought in the western states will play roles in shaping the Northeast’s winter weather forecast. The early fall snow covers in Siberia results in a higher albedo across the vast area, which weakens the regions polar vortex effects, and forces the cold air south in to the Northeastern United States.  The warm water present in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean has a similar effect, funneling cold Siberian air towards the Eastern US.  The ongoing draught in the West is credited with amplifying both of these effects (adirondacklifemag.com).  It is pretty fascinating to learn that weather on the other side of the globe is closely connected to our local forecast.  Moral of the story, we really don’t know what this winter will look like and we will have to wait to see.    Meanwhile, I’ll be doing my snow dance.

 

Winter storm Nemo aftermath in Portland. ME

Cited

http://www.adirondacklifemag.com/blogs/2015/10/22/will-el-nino-mean-a-snowless-adirondack-winter/

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html